Wolf Money(world market review 13-19 Oct 2025)
Market Summary 13-19 Oct 2025
*USA*
+ Powell said central bank may soon end its balance sheet reduction process, marking a key shift in monetary policy
± Powell: economy may be on somewhat firmer trajectory than expected, but job market weak
+ Trump said his proposed 100% tariff on goods from China would not be sustainable
-US economic activity little changed, employment stable in recent weeks: Fed
+ US retail sales excluding autos likely to increased again in Sept: Chicago Fed
+ US 10-year Treasury yield fell back below 4% to near 1-year lows
+ US govt recorded US$198bn budget surplus in Sept, vs US$80bn surplus same mth last year
-US Treasuries held at NY Fed on behalf of global central banks has slumped to lowest in over a decade
+ US homebuilder sentiment jumped to 6-mth high in Oct amid hopes declining mortgage rates would stimulate demand
+ US builder confidence for newly built single-family homes rose to 37 pts in Oct, highest since Apr
-US regional banks Zions Bank, Western Alliance Bank n investment bank Jefferies disclosed various bad investments on their books; Jeffries was holding US$5.9bn in debt of bankrupt auto parts company First Brands
-Zions Bancorp is suing to recover more than $60m, n Western Alliance Bancorp is trying to get back $100m
± US major companies Tesla, P&G, GE, Coca-Cola, Netflix, IBM, AT&T, Verizon n Intel set to report results next wk
-US more mass firings of federal workers possible as govt shutdown continues
-US blocked a global fee on shipping emission as int’l maritime meeting ended without adopting new regulations
-Trump immigration crackdown projected to shrink workforce by 6.8m ppl by 2028 and 15.7m by 2035
± US Senior Judge of California halt govt from proceeding with layoffs of federal employees during ongoing govt shutdown
-Nvidia CEO says Nvidia’s China AI GPU market share has plummeted from 95% to 0 as US export controls continue
+ Trump confirmed he will meet with Xi in 2 weeks
+ Trump and Putin set for new talk next wk in Hungary
+ Bessent: 100% tariffs on China don’t have to happen
+ US planning a US$20bn private sector rescue fund to support Argentina’s debt market: Bessent
-US companies could report milder earnings growth in Q3 YoY, partly due to likely tariff hit
+ Goldman Sachs’ Q3 profit jumped >37%, fuelled by 60% surge in advisory fees
+ JPMorgan raised full-year forecast for net interest income, after strong performance in trading n investment banking businesses
+ JPMorgan launched a US$1.5 trillion plan to facilitate finance and invest in industries deemed critical to US national security and economic resilience
+ Apple CEO Tim Cook said will continue to increase its investment in China n further expand its cooperation
*WORLD*
-G7 agrees to keep united front on China export controls, diversify suppliers
-IMF: 60% of jobs will be impacted by AI
*CHINA*
-China’s CPI fell by 0.3% YoY in Sept, easing from Aug’s 0.4% decline
+ China’s exports grew by 8.3% YoY in Sept, up from 4.4% in Aug, through first 3 qtrs, exports grew 6.1% YoY to US$2.78 trillion
+ China’s trade surplus rose to US$90.45bn in Sept, vs last mth’s US$102.33bn
± China’s PPI down 2.3% in Sept, decline for 2nd consecutive mth, narrowing from 2.9% down in Aug
+ China’s govt to meet this mth to map a 5-year vision that prioritises high-tech manufacturing
+ China’s Sept new bank loans stood at ¥1.29 trillion (US$181.06), up from ¥590bn in Aug: Reuters
+ China discovered large gold mine in Gansu Province, with newly added gold reserve exceeding 40 tons
+ China’s remains global leader in shipbuilding across 3 key metric – output, new orders and order backlog, in first 3 qtrs
-China sanctions 5 US-based subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder, Hanwha Ocean
-China’s commerce ministry to hold hearing on anti-dumping probe into EU pork
-China’s export controls on rare earths could have a “material impact” on global growth: IMF
-China’s yuan-denominated exports to Russia in Sept posted biggest drop in 7 mths, down 21% to ¥62.11bn YoY
+ China’s 2nd highest ranking general and 8 other senior officials have been expelled from ruling communist party and military on suspicion of serious misconduct linked to corruption
+ China 138th Canton Fair kicked off in Guangzhou, will run through Nov 4 in 3 phases
+ China witnessed 48.3% growth in visa-free entries in Q3 or nearly 7.25m visits
+ China expands Hainan duty-free policy for departing travellers, adding new goods, increase annual purchase allowance
+ China, Canada FMs met in Beijing, reaffirm dialogue
+ China researchers develop high-precision scalable analogue matrix equation solving using resistive random-access memory chips
+ Chinese retailers to extend their annual “singles” Day sales bonanza to 5 weeks to revive spending
*EUROPE*
+ Eurozone’s trade surplus fell to €2.1bn in Aug, vs €7.9bn in Jul
+ EU plans to agree to set a new climate change target for 2040
-EU Automobile Manufacturers’’ Association voice concern over potential significant disruption to European Vehcile manufacturing if interruption of Nexperia chip supplies cannot be immediately resolved
+ EU floats conditions for Chinese companies investing in Europe, including transfers of technology and know-how
-Digital euro could drain up to €700bn of deposits in bank run
-UK trade deficit in goods and services grows to £5.2bn in 3 mths to Aug
-UK grocery inflation rose to 5.2% in 4 weeks to Oct 5: industry data
-Italy plans to hike flat tax on the income of wealthy individuals who move to the country by 50%
-Netherlands court documents reveal US pressure behind the move to take control of Chinese-owned chipmaker Nexperia
-Nestle plans to cut 16,000 jobs worldwide as cost-cutting strategy, aims to save US$3.77bn by 2027
+ Russia to produce 510M tons of oil in 2025: Putin
*ASIA*
-Japan’s industrial output down by 1.6% to 89.9 in Aug
-India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to 13-mth high of US$32.15bn in Sept
+ South Korea says ‘huge progress’ in US trade talks that US was not insisting to make all US$350bn investment
-Aramco CEO warned world could face oil shortage unless companies increase spending on exploration and production
-Indonesia FDI, excluding investments in financial n oil & gas sectors fell by 9.8% YoY in Q3, drops the most in >5 yrs
+ Indonesia to buy 42 fighter jets from China, its first non-Western aircraft purchase deal
+ Laos may cut off electricity to cryptocurrency miners early 2026 to redirect power toward industries with greater economic impact
+ Malaysia GDP expanded 5.2% YoY in Q3, vs 4.4% growth in Q2, fastest expansion in a year
+ Malaysia exports surged 12.2% YoY to MYR138.7bn in Sept, hit 5-mth high , trade surplus surged to MYR19.9bn, largest in 6-mth
+ Sg NODX surged 6.9% YoY in Sept, recovering sharply from upwardly revised 11.5% decline in Aug, first growth in 3 mths
*<<I’ll be away until the end of November, I won’t be doing the market summary report during this time>>*
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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