Wolf Money(world market review 29 Sept - 5 Oct 2025)
Market Summary 29 Sept – 5 Oct 2025
*USA*
-White House: mass layoffs of US federal workers are “imminent” and could result in ppl permanently losing their jobs within days
-Trump: there would be firings and project cuts if US shutdown continues
-US federal shutdown will cut off vital economic data
-Fed Vice chair pointed out a significant slowdown in economic growth for H1; US GDP annual growth stood at 1.6% vs 2.4 in 2024
-US Consumer Confidence Index slid 3.6 pts in Sept to 94.2 on labour market worries, lowest level since Apr 2025
+ US Composite PMI Output at 53.9 in Sept, vs 54.6 in Aug
± US ISM Services PMI fell to 50 in Sept from 52 in Aug
-US Business Activity Index declined from 55 to 49.9 in Sept; employment index at 47.2 vs 46.5 in Aug
± US New Orders Index down from 56 to 50.4 in Sept; Supplier Deliveries index up from 50.3 to 52.6
-US report shows hiring at lowest since 2009, jobless level barely moved at 4.34% in Sept vs Aug’s 4.4%
-US private sector payrolls decline 32,000 in Sept vs +5000 expected
+ Trump considering increased tariff relief to entice US vehicle production
+ Bassent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” in coming US-China trade talks amid soybean tensions
+ US set to hold govt’s biggest coal sales in more than a decade, offering 600m tons from publicly owned reserves
+ US officials discussed taking a stake in Critical Metals Corp, with equity interest in Greenland rare earth project
+ US banks expect their capital requirements could fall as regulators revamp rules
-US dollar hits 30-year low in global foreign reserves to 56.3%: IMF
-US job openings fell 176,000 to a 10-mth low of 7.181m by end Jul, layoffs rose to 12,000 to 1.808m
± US ready to displace all Russian gas and oil in EU: energy secretary
+ Microsoft aims to rely primarily on its own data centre chips for AI in the future
+ Berkshire Hataway to acquire OxyChem for US$9.7bn
+ OpenAI seeks funds for infrastructure expansion on Asia
+ Elon Musk becomes first person with US$500bn net worth
+ Bitcoin hits all-time high above US$125,000
*CHINA*
-China’s manufacturing PMI at 49.8 in Sept, up 0.4% MoM
± China’s non-manufacturing PMI at 50 in Sept down 0.3% MoM
+ PBOC to conduct ¥1.1 trillion outright reverse repo operation to maintain ample liquidity in banking system
+ China’s service trade grew 7.4% YoY in first 8 mths, total imports n exports reaching nearly ¥5.25 trillion
+ China’s external financial assets banking sector topped US$1.77 trillion in H1, external financial liabilities at nearly US$1.54 trillion
+ China’s R&D expenditure rose 8.9% YoY to >¥3.6 trillion in 2024
+ China to launch new K visa to attract foreign tech talent
+ China to launch new policy-based financial instrument worth ¥500bn, to replenish project capital
+ China unveiled plans to keep machinery growing steadily, expects operating revenue to reach ¥10 trillion from 2025-2026
+ China’s electricity consumption hit record high for 2 consecutive mths in Jul and Aug
+ China 3rd batch-produced AG600 Kunlong amphibious aircraft, world’s largest by take off weight, completes test flight
+ China rolled out a work plan for stabilising growth in nonferrous metals industry
+ Chinese tourists made nearly 3.29bn domestic trips in H1, at new record high, tourists related-expenditure reached ¥3.15 trillion
+ China’s railway handled record 23.13m passenger trips on Oct 1 National Day, expects 2.36bn passenger trips during Golden Wk
+ China’s 2025 box office surpasses 2024’s gull-year gross, with local films dominating
+ HK IPO fundraising reached nearly HK$150bn (US$19.2bn) in first 8 mths, highest globally
+ HK to regulate ‘shoebox’ flats starting Mar 2026
+ Taiwan rejects US proposal for ’50-50’ chip split: VP
+ Taiwan exploring a high-tech strategic partnership with US to boost bilateral investment, amid seeking to reduce 20% tariff
± Taiwan became the largest global importer of Russian naphtha in H1
*EUROPE*
-Eurozone and EU PPP decline by 0.3% and 0.4% MoM in Aug
+ Eurozone Services PMI rose to 51.3 in Sept from 50.5 in Aug at YTD-High
+ EU has struck 3 FTAs: South American bloc Mercosur, Mexico, n Indonesia, possible with India by end of the year
± EU should avoid temptation of easing bank regulation, should instead tighten rules for parts of financial sector: policymakers
-UK business activity sank to 50.8 in Sept from 54.2 in Aug, slowest pace in 5 mths: S&P Global PMI
-UK firm’s hiring plans are weakest since 2020: BoE survey
+ UK sales of pure battery EVs grew 71.4% in Sept to 72,779 at record high
-French PM plans new tax on people earning >€250,000 a year
-Renault plans to cut 15% or 3000 jobs in support functions
*ASIA*
+ Japan set to have first female PM after LDP elects Sanae Takaichi as new leader
± Japan’s likely next PM Takaichi said govt n central bank must work closely to ensure economy achieves demand-driven inflation backed by rising wages n corporate profits
+ Japan S&P Global Composite PMI at 51.3 in Sept vs 52.1 in Aug
+ Japan 10-year govt bond stays above 1.66% at near 17-year high
+ Japan’s Services PMI edged up to 53.3 in Sept from 53.1 in Aug
+ India central bank proposes to ease foreign borrowing rules for firms
+ South Korea’s trade surplus at US$9.56bn in Sept vs Aug’s surplus of US$6.51bn
+ Samsung, SK Hynix to supply memory chips to OpenAi’s Stargate project
+ Saudi Arabia to buy world’s largest video games publisher, California-based Electronic Arts, valued at US$55bn in the deal
+ Pakistan ships 1st batch of rare earth elements to US in US$500m deal
+ Pakistan military chief reportedly pitches port on Arabian Sea to US; eye on minerals hub development: Report
*ASEAN*
± Indonesia President told military to guard vast natural resources from foreign entities, saying such groups “stealing” n “smuggling” country’s assets
+ Indonesia’s Aug trade surplus widest in near 3-year on slide in imports
+ Indonesia palm oil export soars 35% to >US$16.66bn in the first 8 mths
-Indonesia’s coal exports down nearly 21% so far this year as of Aug
+ Vietnam expects GDP growth to reach 8.22% in Q3
+ Malaysia, China in talks for rare earths refinery project: sources
+ Sg S&P Global PMI rose to 56.4 in Sept, up from 51.2 in Aug at 1-year high
+ Sg retail sales climbed 5.2% YoY or 0.5% MoM in Aug at 18-mth high; mainly driven by furniture and household equipment
+ Temasek invested more into public equities in the last 18 mths than it traditionally has done: CEO Pillay
+ Sg ranked top choice globally for entrepreneurs moving their wealth and for personal relocation: HSBC
+ CICT overtakes HK’s Link Reit to become Asia’s largest REITs
+ Sg hotel occupancies for full F1 race week higher than same point last year
+ Sg population now at 6.11m
+ Sg to end registration of new petrol-powered vehicles by 2030, to face out all internal combustion engine
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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