Wolf Money(world market review 6-12 Oct 2025)
Market Summary 6 – 12 Oct 2025
*USA*
+ FOMC released minutes from Sept, detailing most participants thought it’s appropriate to ease further
+ US Composite PMI Output at 53 in Sept, falling from 54.6 in Aug
+ US Services PMI growth down from 52% to 50% in Sept, below expectations
-US Consumer Sentiment Index slipped 0.2% MoM in Oct at 55, down 22% on annual level
-Trump announced additional 100% tariffs on Chinese goods beginning Nov 1
-US >4000 federal workers fired amid govt shutdown
-US tariffs full impact may be felt in 2026: WTO
± US sells US$58bn in 3-year notes at 3.576%, US$38.9bn in 10-year at 4.117% yield, US$21.9bn in 30-year at 4.734% yield
-US imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery n terminal over Iran’s oil n petrochemicals trade
-US will start imposing hefty new fees on ships owned, operated, or built by Chinese companies starting Oct 14
-US could impose export controls on Boeing plane parts
-US plans to withdraw around US$12bn from clean energy projects
-US foreign student arrivals plunged nearly 20% in Aug, students from India down 44%, from China down 18%
± JP Morgan: debt linked to AI reached US$1.2 trillion, marking the largest segment in US investment-grade market
± AI could wipe out 100m US jobs over the next decade: Bernie Sanders report
+ OpenAI is building its own version of app store, directly competing with Apple and Google; has reached 800m weekly users
-US new truck import tariffs to take effect Nov 1
+ Berkshire Hathaway surpasses Federal Reserve in Treasury bill holdings, controlled about US$305bn vs Fed’s US$195bn
*OTHERS*
+ Brazil, US officials agree to meet in US to discuss trade
+ Brazil expanding its soybean and beef exports to China
+ OPEC+ to hike Nov output by 137k bpd
-WTI crude oil futures fell to 7-mth low
*CHINA*
+ China’s foreign exchange and gold reserves both climbed stood at US$3.34 trillion end Sept, up US$16.5bn or 0.5% MoM
-China announced multiple new rare earth related export control measures, including export controls on tech related to rare earth
-China to impose export controls on superhard material items starting Nov 8, including artificial diamond micropowder
-China stepped up enforcement of its chip restrictions, expanded recently to all advanced semiconductor products
-China tightens checks on Nvidia AI chips at major ports: FT
-China added high-end lithium batteries, graphite anode materials to export control list
-China announced a special port service fee on vessels linked to US, responding to US’s moves, effective on Oct 14
-China added 23 foreign entities, including Dedrone by Axon, Techinsights and its 9 subsidiaries to its unreliable entity list
+ China launched probe into Qualcomm for suspected anti-monopoly law violation in Autotalks acquisition
+ Chinese stocks listed on mainland and HK attracted net inflow of US$4.6bn from US and EU funds in Sept, highest monthly level in nearly a year
+ BYD’s sales in UK surged 880% on yearly basis to reach 11,271 units in Sept, making UK its largest market outside China
+ China recorded total 16.34m border crossings during the 8-day-long National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, up 11.5% YoY
+ Chinese mainland visitors made 1.4m trips to HK during the 8-day break
*EUROPE*
-Eurozone and EU PPI down 0.3% and 0.4% in Aug respectively
-EU to propose raising steel duties to 50%
+ Eurozone retail sales up 0.1% MoM in Aug
+ EU to invest €1bn in promoting AI adoption across various public sectors
-NATO should potentially throw Spain out over its refusal to hike defence spending as requested: Trump
+ Brussels moves to lift sanctions on Russian billionaire’s assets
+ Germany raises 2025 growth forecast from 0% to 0.2%, with forecast for 1.3% growth in 2026
-German industrial production down by 4.3% in Aug, factory orders down 0.8%, up 1.5% on annual basis
-Germany’s exports to US down 20% YoY in Aug to 4-year low
± German Chancellor to meet auto sector representatives, include suppliers, manufacturers, state officials, trade unions to address the severe downturn
-UK’s manufacturing PMI at 5-mth low in Sept at 46.2: S&P Global
-UK faces winter gas shortages: FT
-BoE FPC warned in a report of a possible sharp repricing of US assets
+ Spain, China held trade n investment matching conference in Madrid, called for stronger bilateral economic n trade cooperation, reaffirmed free trade
+ Israel’s govt approved ceasefire and hostage resolution for Gaza
*ASIA*
-Japan’s biggest opposition party seek to support a unifying candidate with other groups in a bid to block Sane Takaichi being elected as PM
+ Japan’s producer PPI rose by 2.7% YoY in Sept
-Japan’s jobless rate rises to 2.6% in Aug, highest since Jul 2024
+ SoftBank to acquire ABB’s robotic division for US$5.4bn
+ India, China to resume direct flights before end-Oct
+ South Korea posts US$9.56bn trade surplus in Sept, vs Aug’s surplus of US$6.51bn
-Samsung told to pay US$445m in US patent ruling
+ Saudi, US are close to finalising agreement to allow US chipmakers to export chips to the kingdom
*ASEAN*
+ ASEAN+3 economic growth forecasted to reach 4.1% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026
± Indonesia govt stepping up efforts to meet its 2025 tax revenue target of Rp2,076.0 trillion (US$125bn) in last qtr
+ Indonesia set aside undisclosed amount of funds to buy some shares in BRIC-sponsored New Development Bank
+ Indonesia’s benchmark stock index surged to all-time high, lifted by strong domestic liquidity, optimism over monetary easing
-Thailand’s Aug exports grew 5.8% YoY, slowest in nearly a year due to stronger baht and US tariffs
+ Laos-China Railway has seen >60m passenger trips since its launch, carrying 595,000 cross-border travellers
+ Malaysia unveiled record RM470bn spending plan for 20266, to boost tax collection and strengthen social protection systems
+ Sg new grant lets tariff-hit local companies claim up to 50% of costs of adapting
+ Sg digital economy contributed 18.6% to GDP, generated 214,000 tech jobs in 2024
+ Sg set to remain fastest-growing private wealth hub in next 5 years: Bloomberg
+ Temasek-backed Foundation Healthcare is considering IPO could value the medical group S$1.29bn: Bloomberg
Contribution by Derek@valueinvestments chat group. Thank you.
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