Wolf Money(Thai Beverage results conference call summary)

 

I just sat through 45 mins of the conference call. These are some of the points I gathered during the session.

*Spirit business was down due to Thai-Cambodian conflict, as they can’t sell in war zones. Some 600k Cambodians working in Thailand are their customers who fled for their country during the period. In process, pulling down the sales. 

* Sales and marketing expenses were higher than normal in the spirit business due to new products launched. Some products have a payback period of 1 year. They foresee sales and marketing costs to be back to normal for FY26.

*Capex is likely down for the coming year as F&N dairy farm in Malaysia and 3 Cambodia plants are almost close to operational.

* Dividends will be maintained with at least 50% payout subject to cash flow.

* Beer unit is improving in Thailand. They see the same in coming year with the government half-half policy likely to help sales in Jan 2026. Historically, in an election year, alcohol sales go up based on their experience. Thailand is having another general election in 2026. As for Vietnam, competition is fierce as more international brands compete in the market. They are increasing marketing dollars to maintain leadership. Bia Saigon is the number one beer in Vietnam.

*Myanmar business is strong despite logistics challenges and shortage of USD. They have a 72% market share in spirit category.

* Input costs continue to enjoy a strong tailwind in FY26 as most categories like packaging(down 40%), sugar(down 20%), broken rice(down 20%) and malt(down double digits). In general, raw materials have come down 30% to 35% compared to last year.

*BeerCo listing, they continue to improve the number. When the market is ready, they will be ready without providing a timeline.

*Gearing was up due to increased shareholding in F&N which in turn was undertaking a huge dairy farm capex in Malaysia.

Summary

Half of Thai Beverage problem is solved as they face a good tailwind on the cost side of things with raw materials cost continue to drop 30% to 35% on average. The company have to work on the revenue side of things to see a good outcome in FY26. Given all the unfortunate things happening in Thailand, I am keeping my fingers crossed. Thailand sales will improve due to half-half policy in Jan 2026 and historically alcohol consumption goes higher during an election year. Thai Beverage doesn’t provide guidances for next year. 

* Just a rough write-up, please wait for official transcript. No super computer, only pen and paper and human computer. 

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