Wolf Money(portfolio update end Jan 2026)part 2
Commentary
Lone Wolf Fund(LWF)
Portfolio as at end of Jan 2026
1.) Cash
2.) IREIT Global
*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested.
Commentary
Welcome to the first portfolio update for the year. I have nothing new to report. The End. THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION ON THIS MATTER!
Then again I do have something to talk about. The US market is waking up to the idea of the risk exhibited by the Chief Market Manipulator. After the strong start to the year, profit taking was on the first agenda towards the later part of the month. It is no coincidence, the market got sold off after the tariffs tantrum. The Tariff, another predictable policy tool used by Trump to scare the European Union into submission over Greenland. The rich valuation also plays a big part of the selldown. Trump, himself, has become predictable by doing a TACO. I feel the current situation is a passing cloud for the European Union. Just relax and carry on till midterm elections draw near. By the way, does anyone know why Greenland is called Greenland? There ain’t many greens on the island. There are only miles and miles of ice. The myth has it. There was a Norse explorer named Erik the Red. Just think of him as the Nordic version of Christopher Columbus. With some clever or false marketing, depending on how one sees it, by naming a large chunk of land on the Arctic circle as Greenland in the hope of drawing more people from the nordic region to settle on the island. It works.
One positive outcome out of the EU and America spat. There wouldn’t be any world war in the foreseeable future, in my opinion. When the Europeans and Americans can’t see eye to eye. There will be peace on earth. US action on the EU, Canada and South America will push those countries to seek closer cooperation with China. How is that going to improve security for America? The best counter balance against Trump’s rhetoric is the yield on US10 Year bond. The higher it goes, the tone of the Trump administration changes. The rising hysteria around the world would hasten the demise of the USD as the world reserve currency. The dumping of US debt will gather momentum. If it is serious enough, the Trump administration might impose a capital control or restriction on selling US debt. Is it that simple? A whipsaw might happen in the short term, causing gold and other metals to tank. When the consensus of the dollar is a one way street, be careful of things happening the other way.
Singapore market had its strongest start in years. The market was up 6% in Jan. LWF had an uneventful month. Given the strong start to our market, my horse (wolf) is still firmly bolted at the starting gate of 2025. The fund experienced a 0.5% return for the month, underperforming the general market massively. Lone Wolf Fund will have a clearer picture of how my investment will be heading in Feb as a couple of my portfolio companies will be reporting their final year results. It will give me some directions.
Genting Singapore
The sole survivor from last year’s portfolio continues to feature. I would like to sell you a vision of Sentosa in 2030…
Resort World Sentosa officially opened RWS 2.0 after 4 years of construction. Visitor numbers have jumped due to more activities in Sentosa. The Super Nintendo World, the biggest attraction in Universal Studios Singapore, pulls in huge numbers of fans from across the world. Fans of Super Mario want to experience the popular game in real life. The theme park is the second after Japan.There are plans to bring PokePark to Sentosa for Pikachu fans in the upcoming RWS 3.0 redevelopment……. Luxe travel is never the same again, with ultra-luxury hotels drawing millionaires and billionaires around the world with its $20000 a night suite……The new gaming area drawing in players with its Vegas-style hospitality…..Genting report a jump in earnings……
In present day, RWS has been lagging in attracting high rollers to its properties. One of the reasons might be the less glamorous design. With experience running casinos in Vegas, RWS will be able to replicate Vegas-style hospitality into its properties in Singapore. One of Genting Singapore’s strongest moat is the ability to attract families to their properties due to theme parks. Sentosa will be better suited as a centre for theme park. How about a Disneyland on the island since we have a Disney cruise sailing out from Singapore? It will be the only unique location in the world where all major theme parks are within walking distance. Travellers just need to go one country to have all their theme parks experience.
The trend of a new generation of travellers spending more on buying experiences over luxury goods is gaining popularity. Experiential travel is on trend. Taking video and photo as part of the itinerary has become mainstream. More people are spending money on business and first-class flights at their own expenses. Demand for ultra luxury cruises are on the rise, costing in tens of thousands of dollars. I expect the next trend in traveling might be going to a big city to stay in one of the most expensive hotels and cruises. The Laurus and the Raffles Hotel in Sentosa have room rates starting at $1000 and beyond.
I believe RWS will have an advantage over MBS in years to come. The building of more convention space at MBS clearly lacks innovation from what they have done over the last 15 years. If one is not interested in gambling or luxury shopping. The visitor to MBS literally has nothing much to do within its property. Given my impression on the cruise ship, the current Gen Z and Gen Alpha seem to be lukewarm towards casino gambling. Why bet hundreds or thousands on a table game when cryptocurrency experience swing in tens of thousands in double quick time?
The growth in the Singapore tourism sector, in particular RWS, is likely to come from India and emerging markets. I have the impression people from the Indian subcontinent prefer resort-styled hotels and cruises. With the growing middle class from India, Singapore will be an attractive travel destination within the 4 hrs flight time. I am seeing more free and easy travellers from India. The number of visitors from India lacks behind those from Australia, which is further away from Singapore with a much smaller population compared to India. STB should double down on their marketing effort in India. Given SIA has a foothold in the India airline industry through a 25% ownership of Air India which gives Singapore an advantage of bringing in travellers from the country.
I am painting a blue sky scenario. The situation over the past few years could continue to affect the performance of the company going forward. Cost overruns are the greatest concern as prices of construction materials continue to rise. The company is reporting earnings on the 24th of Feb.
Cash
The longer term yield are rising across board. From my own perspective, the market is worry about inflation coming back in a big way. As the USD weakens, it will fuel gains in inflation. Gold and other industrial metals are leading the charge. The market optimism of a rate cut in 2026 is unfounded. The rising 10 years is having an impact on short term interest rates too. Some banks are offering higher short term rates to compensate for the cut in savings rates. I was able to get 1.58% on a fixed deposit placement for 3 months. There might be an uptick in savings rates soon if the depreciation of USD continues.
IREIT Global
There was a test case purchase of IREIT for a different reason. Most investors invest in reit for dividend income. I am taking a small position with the view that IREIT is going to be successful in signing up new tenants for its Berlin Campus, which hopefully will usher in an era of higher share prices. At this juncture, the stock is well-supported at the 29c-29.5c mark. I have no preconceived notions about holding the share for an extended period of time, as the reposition of Berlin Campus will take another 2 years and many millions to complete before reit holders can see improvements to DPU. If they are successfully in signing new leases for the unoccupied space at Berlin Campus, nav will increase to reflect the new leases. The additional tariffs imposed on the EU by the Trump administration may add another layer of uncertainty to the European economy(non-Greenland tariffs).
At this juncture, it is unclear how the situation will affect office leasing in Europe, especially Berlin Campus, which is the largest property under IREIT Global. On the flip side, the German government is increasing spending on infrastructure and military with a record budget of more than half a trillion euros in 2026. The expansive budget through rearmament of its defence force will help the economy in general.
Summary
The next assessment of my portfolio will be after February results announcement. I am unlikely to add more position in the meantime. Our budget announcement on 12th Feb will be keenly watch. The World Cup will be held in June. The usual dullness in the market during World Cup period may applied as many are glued to the world biggest sporting event. The market will also have its eyes fixed on the next US Fed chairman and the US mid-term election. Inflation has started to pick up pace given the weak dollars. Lower rates in 2026 is not a given. I am expecting volatility to increase towards the second half of 2026. I am still trying to get a sense of the market. God bless. 🙏
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