Wolf Money(portfolio update end April 2026)long post
A friend in need is a friend indeed
Australia and Singapore recently signed a bilateral agreement to strengthen energy security. Both countries need each other due to disruption in LNG supply to Singapore and fuel disruption to Australia from Qatar. We now import about 1/3 of our LNG needs from Down under. Our value to Australia will be in the area of priority access to refined petroleum products like diesel and jet fuel, where close to 50% of Australia’s imports come from Singapore. Singapore relies heavily on imported LNG for power generation. Australia as the world leading exporter of LNG can provide the extra LNG we need. Singapore is one of the major refineries in the world. We have many oil tankers coming from all over the world that help to supply our refineries with crude feed stock. From what I have gathered, Singapore refineries take in mostly mid to heavy crude from Middle East. We produce roughly 1.5m barrels per day in refined petroleum products with around 77% are past through for export. The deepening cooperation helps serve the energy needs of both countries.
I would like to give a few more suggestions on how Australia and Singapore can work together to improve energy and food security. Both countries, with the blessing of Timor-Leste, can jointly develop oil & gas in the country. It provides Timor-Leste with much-needed revenue and Singapore with much-needed feedstock for its refineries. Australia and Singapore could invest in each other countries for more refining capacity to solve the tight supply of refined crude. With Singapore likely to go nuclear in about a decade from now. Due to our small size, hosting a nuclear power plant is out of the question. We could realise our net-zero ambition by providing the seed money for countries willing to host the plant in a secure remote location, for example in Australia. A nuclear power plant in Australia can be considered due to Australia huge uranium reserves. The construction of nuclear power plants is very costly. It is very punitive for any country to build such a plant. Singapore can sign an electricity off-take contract with Australia for electricity produced by nuclear power. Electricity can be transmitted via undersea cables.
In food security, Singapore companies could invest in Australia farm sector for food production. It could help both countries by creating more jobs in Australia and Singapore could gain from a higher food output. For the interest of my readers, Singapore imports more than 90% of our food consumption. In that role, New Zealand could also be a valuable partner.
I went into a leading sportswear store to look at the World Cup jerseys on sale. The recent punt on Nike has to do with it. Nike’s leading position in sportswear is losing ground. Over the years, due to the company focusing on doing more direct sales online, many retailers were sidelined by the change in strategy. Many empty shelves in sportswear retailers give On and Hoka the opportunity to have a stronger presence in their stores. Nike used to occupy the most prominent shelves spaces in any major sports retailers. Not anymore. On and Hoka are placed in a more prominent position at the front of the store.
My thoughts on quality and design. The competition from new age brands has surpassed my expectations. Even traditional brands like Adidas made better jerseys for the World Cup teams in 2026. There are more sports brands competing for the same consumer dollars. “Mike” is the new generation of Gen Alpha and Gen Z consumers. They are smarter now, they compare quality and prices. An example I bought Nike sports wear directly from their online website in North America. T-shirts are mostly made by a central america manufacturers. The quality just couldn’t match up with those made in China. With the inconvenient of tariffs, Nike is caught in a catch 22 situation when sourcing for the best suppliers due to the trade war.
Celebrity endorsement have failed to excite the new generation of customers. Jordan is the most successful marketing done by Nike, but that is for those 90s kids. Ask anyone born after the 2000s, Jordan becomes an unfamiliar name, just like converse Chuck Taylor(I have no idea who he was). The current generation wants to be aspired by Eileen Gu of the world, not some retired sportsman milking his legacy, although I have a lot of respect for Jordan for what he had done for the basketball world. Gen Z and Gen Alpha is mostly unfamiliar with Jordan’s achievements.
Ultimately, consumers is going to vote with their money for better and newer products with better design that tickle the right emotional buttons. Is Nike going the Starbucks way? I hope not. The company has big issue. Converse falling sales and China retail weakness have contributed to the weak trading environment for Nike. The more serious issue facing American sports brands is the ability to compete effectively against the Chinese brands. Wilson, Anta, Li Ning and Fila, all Chinese-owned, produce better products at lower cost, wraparound with some clever marketing by employing ex-creative/marketing directors from those top brands and you have a superior product. The new generation of consumers like Mike has no emotional attachment to Nike and Mike doesn’t buy Nike.
*Just my observation. 2c worth. No malice in my commentary
Portfolio as at end of April 2026
1.) Cash
2.) Olam Group
4.) Tai Sin Electric
5.) Grab Holdings
*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested.
Commentary
Lone Wolf Fund experienced a 2% gain in April, reversing the YTD negative returns. Year to date return stands at a positive 1% (unleveraged excluding dividends and cash yield). There was a realised loss in Nike. Gains can be seen in Grab, Hotel Grand Central and Tai Sin. Grab advanced more than 7% in April that contributed much to the turnaround in portfolio. After the adjustment made in April. I have an equal weight on most of the companies I own.
The market focus is still on the prices of oil. Oil prices will be the key indicator for the market. Barrels of oil, millions of it are trap in Persian Gulf. If there is a settlement between the US and Iran. With a flip of the “Hormuz” switch, all those supply will flood the market sending oil price crashing in the short term (one of the possible scenarios). Oil futures are pointing towards lower price in the next 6 to 12 months. UAE has announced they are leaving OPEC. This is a game changer for price of oil. UAE is capable of producing more, but was capped due to quota imposed by OPEC. After leaving OPEC, UAE can produces up to 30% or 1m barrels more in output. We might be witnessing the beginning of the breakup in the oil cartel. Other countries in OPEC might leave to cash in on the high oil price. LWF bought additional shares in April Grab. By taking a bigger stake in Grab, I am indirectly betting on the price of oil to head lower over the next few months. There is no assurance things will go accordingly to my liking. It is not a straight line situation with the war in Iran a likely stop-start affair, but I have mid-term election in my favour. I hope to be correct🙏.
Hotel Grand Central
The AUD continues to gain ground against SGD. Now 1 AUD buys 91c SGD. During my last write-up, I forgot to mention HGC maintains an investment portfolio of mostly shares in Singapore listed companies. OCBC in particular struck me as an outlier. I did a simple calculation: the 1.55m shares in OCBC alone accounts for more than 90% of the investment portfolio, or $34m at current OCBC price. If you are following our market, OCBC is on steroids, recording substantial gains over the past few months. If I did a guesstimation, the current portfolio are worth north of $36m or an additional 5c per Hotel Grand Central share. Cash and liquid assets is now worth 39c per HGC share if I add the 34c cash per share. The cash and quality investment will cushion any market volatility. HGC had a nice uptick in April.
The recent Q&A given by management did not go far enough to address my concerns. It gives me a mixed feeling. From my impression, the company is not keen in doing a share buyback for whatever reason and they are not interested in divesting some of their non core assets which I have cited. The saving grace, the company does support SGX’s initiative to encourage listed companies to do more value creation to address the poor share price performance. I have decided to do a reduction in holdings. I will relook at the company more closely when the management has more concrete ideas on how to bring value to the shareholders. Capital were redeployed to Grab Holdings and Olam Group.
Grab Holdings
The company has officially muscle into the hospitality booking business. During the annual Grab X 2026, they launch a feature named Grab Stay. It allows users to book hotel stays. This is significant as the feature is a natural extension of its ride-hailing and delivery business. I predict Grab will be launching a few more tourism-related services on their app, like booking of tickets for flights, concert and sightseeing. They are potentially muscling into Trip.com and Klook territories. It makes sense to have an integrated services where the traveller could book a flight and hotels, tickets to place of interests and a Grab ride to their destination. Given there are more than 50m active app users, the cross-selling will bring in additional revenue for the company. Stocks have rallied more than 7% for the month from the recent lows. Grab will be reporting earnings on the 4th of May.
Tai Sin Electric
Tai Sin shares were slightly up due to the bullish sentiment. The copper price has surged passed USD $6. The rise in oil prices is a plus for Tai Sin as demand for EV will drive demand for charging, indirectly benefiting Tai Sin. EV is leading registration of new cars in 1Q. Six out of ten registered cars are EV. LWF did a small reduction in Tai Sin to raise cash for Grab and Olam purchases.
Cash
LWF’s cash level was slightly up after this month transactions. A general observation, fixed deposit rates are going up. One can easily get up to 1.5% interest on a 12 months tenure.
Olam Group(new)
The company divested another 44.58% of Olam Agri to SALIC. This move is significant as it delivers a truckload of needed cash to the company. With the sale, the financial situation has turned for the better. The priority of the company is to retire some of the outstanding debts. The $604.5m perpetual security bearing 5.375% coupon due in July26 should be the first to be addressed. With the reduction in debt, interest payments will be significantly reduced. The company is likely going through a path of asset divestment exercise. The likely scenario will be returning more cash to shareholders. I hold off my purchase till the deal is completed so as to be sure the billions are really coming into Olam’s coffers, even though I could have gotten in at lower price when they announced the regulatory approval. A bird in hand is better than two in the bushes. After the divestment of Olam Agri, the company attention will be given to OFI. An IPO or a partial sale to an external investor are cited as a possibility by the management. OFI was given a valuation of $12b by Lim & Tan analyst. If we give another 20% discount to OFI’s valuation on top of the sotp discount. That business unit alone is worth north of $2.5 per Olam shares without accounting for debt. Extracting value out of OFI is not going to be easy. There are considerations for an overseas listing.
Summary
The seasonally weak months in May and June should be noted. Historically, a World Cup year is seen as a weak month in June as traders are glued to the screen to watch their favourite team in action. Interest will only come back towards the end of June. The inflation data around the world are showing strong upward momentum. Inflation data in the US will be an interesting read as it will determine the interest rate direction taken by the new Fed chair. I am watching my exposure closely , I wouldn’t be adding new capital to the market. If I have to buy a new position, I will manage within my current portfolio. The general market has been good so far, but LWF is underperforming the broader market. Taking some money off the table is not a bad thing to do. God bless. 🙏
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