Wolf Money(portfolio update end June 2026)
The World Cup
The World Cup is in full swing now. I have a soft spot for the Scotland National Team. It must have been donkey years since I last saw a World Cup match featuring Scotland on TV. The country had been absent in the tournament for 27 years. The win over Haiti was their first in 36 years. Previously, I remember any matches that feature Scotland in the WC were always well-supported by travelling Scottish fans. The never-say-die attitude of the Scottish brings excitement to the games which any neutral fan can appreciate. Scotland is on 300 to 1 to win the World Cup based on bookmaker odds. That puts Scotland at 0.3322% probability of winning the cup among the 48 participating teams. The next two games saw defeat for the Scottish, ending their World Cup journey.
After many setbacks, the Iranian football team finally played their first match in the tournament. During my teenage years, that was a good 35 years ago. I befriended an Iranian at my neighbourhood basketball court. We were drawn by our passion to be the next Michael Jordan. I find him friendly and respectful. He is in our country to study. His spoken English is good, but I have a bit of difficulty understanding him due to his Middle Eastern accent. Given the economic situation in Iran, he must be coming from an upper class family to be able to afford a good education here in Singapore. He lives in the capital city of Tehran. Tehran is a city which I like to visit someday. We lost contact after he moved. A shout-out to my Iranian friend if he is reading my blog somewhere in the world.
Portfolio as at end of June 2026
1.) Cash
3.) Olam Group
*Stocks are not rank in accordance to capital invested.
Commentary
I have been enjoying life out of the market for close to a month. A month’s break kept me fresh, but the rust is starting to settle on my writing. I hope to get up to speed with my blog.
Lone Wolf Fund ytd stands at 1%, down 0.5% for the month due to realised losses in Jardine C&C. I continued to study the pros and cons of buying into a bull market. Capital will be carefully deployed as potential pull back is a real concern for me. I don’t have to go far to point out some examples. The gold and cryptocurrency market experienced bear market-like drops over the past few months. Oil on the same breadth is in a bear market since hitting a high of USD $120 just 2 months ago. Tech stocks has a brutal month with major tech companies on correction mode.
The market plays out one of the scenarios I mentioned earlier. The opening of the Straits of Hormuz causing the drop in oil price, giving the market a sigh of relief it seeks. It was a forced move by the Trump administration to negotiate with Iran. No benefits were accorded to the American from the ceasefire. It was a total victory by Iran in my opinion. Sanctions lifted, enriched uranium stays with the Iranians. The Iranians oil embargo fully lifted, and the regime hasn’t collapsed. The US, after spending billions, are going back to the situation before the war. A “great” deal that the world has never seen before. The “art” of the deal indeed by the Commander in Chief. I wouldn’t be surprised the war with Iran be revisited once the mid-term election is over if the congress allows it.
I have been looking at a few companies, but so far nothing comes close enough to go into my conviction buy list with the exceptional of a half strength purchase of Olam Group and Hotel Grand Central in June.
After my trip to Japan, I replenished my Japanese Yen which hit an all-time low against the Singapore dollar this month. I was able to get an exchange rate of $1 : ¥124. The Japanese central bank just raised the rate this month. I predict more interest hikes as the inflation situation in Japan is uncontrollably high. A bowl of ramen costing ¥700 formerly, is now selling for ¥1000 in just under 2 short years since our last visit to the country. We felt the rising price even with a superior exchange rate during our recent trip to Osaka. Will the rise in interest rate spark a carry trade sell off in the market? I don’t know.
With the improvement sentiment in our market, there have been more new listings raising capital via IPO. Most listings still lack quality. With a good numbers still underwater. The last thing investors want is a new listing barely 2 months into their debut with share price Just COllapsing 40% from their IPO price. If no one can make money applying IPOs, more people are going to avoid the IPO market altogether. The issuers and underwriters have to do better with quality and on valuation, leave some money on the table if they want the IPO market to work for them.
I may sound overly cautious on tech and AI. Don’t get me wrong. I believe in the AI story, just like I believed in the internet story in the 2000s. I just haven’t figured out which horse to bet. The internet story is real, but it hasn’t stopped Amazon from crashing 90% during the tech bubble crash in the 2000-2003 before a 20x return over the next two decades. The AI revolution is going to be a multi-decade trend. There will be plenty of opportunities in the years ahead.
Olam Group
I am back with this familiar name. I am still in the process of getting a grip on the latest market developments. It might be wise to start with things that I had previously researched. The company’s upcoming 1H will be an interesting read. There might be a general improvement to the business bottomline due to lower debt load. Expectations are for the company to distribute some special dividends. Fingers crossed. The nature of the position is situational.
Hotel Grand Central
After almost a month out of the market, I was able to buy back Hotel Grand Central at lower price. The upcoming 1H 26 results will set the tone for the rest of 2026. I like to see the company putting more effort to improve the shareholders’ return by doing share buybacks or propose a special dividend. I don’t see the need to sit on a pile of cash of $254m and marketable securities worth close to $38m with 90% invested in OCBC shares. 90% capital on one stock, that is not investing, that is speculation. It is above and beyond what they need for running the business. The minimum should be a rise in normal dividend towards the 4c level which they have been paying before covid. If everything failed, the company should considered buying out the minority with a fair privatisation offer to save $1m annually on listing related fees. On operation front, the management could explore the use of third party hotel management services like Accor to improve occupancy and yield. International hotel brands will have a wider appeal in the market they operate, even Hotel Grand Central is well established in Singapore, but tourists from overseas barely registered their name. The natural of the position is situational.🙏
Jardine C&C(sold)
Jardine C&C has been the enduring brand for Mercedes dealership in Singapore. The company’s main core business in Indonesia falls under Astra International. They are the distributor of Toyota and Honda in Indonesia with more than 50% market share. The 16% drop caught me by surprise, given there are rumours of a sale of their car distribution business in Malaysia and Singapore. That business is worth in the ballpark of USD $250m-$350m, about SGD $1 per JC&C share if they manage a sale.
The major uncertainty is policy risk in Indonesia. The rupiah hit a low against the USD recently due to policy uncertainty under Prabowo’s leadership. The performance of the Indonesian stock market is one of the worst in Asia this year. MSCI has postponed their market review to Nov. The major weakness was United Tractor. Gold mining permits were cancelled which led to a 90% drop in gold output. The subsidiary of PT. Astra has given the permits to restart their gold mining business in May. With prices of gold still high, subsequent quarters may show improvement. There are many businesses in Jardine C&C that can be divested. Plus the potential privatisation by Jardine Matheson which owns close to 86% of JC&C is another catalyst. Shares are trading at less than 1x book with a p/e of less than 8 times and a dividend yield of 5.2%. The company has little to no debt. I am doing a test case to get to know the company better, but I made a loss of 2.5% on selling the test position. Back to the drawing board for LWF.
Cash
I continue to deploy my cash on travel-related experiences. LWF has close to full capital at my disposal. Short-term fixed deposit is my preferred way of holding cash. One should be able to get 1.4% for FD tenure below 6 months.
Summary
I took concrete steps to reduce my exposure to the market. LWF will be rebuilding my portfolio if and when there is an opportunity. Most of my current positions are on half strength as I am unwilling to push beyond my comfort level.
In this bull market, there will be winners and losers. Those who sell early, looking at the market with envy. There are losers who lost huge money in gold and crypto and there are winners who are courageous enough to bet their house on the market that pays off handsomely. After the recent bad run by LWF, one starts to realise that there is no point of forcing an issue with the market. If the market has to correct, it will correct. If the market continues to be strong, it will continue to go up. What causes people to lose money is the jumping on and off the bus type of situation. The undecided becoming the biggest loser in the market. As a golden line out of Wall Street, bulls make money, bears make money, only the pigs get slaughtered on Wall Street. No matter which camp you’re in, have a sound plan.
When everyone is high at the party, someone has to be sober enough to drive the party gang back. I am the one that left the party early. I like to be sober enough to save myself from any drunkenness. It might be too early to invest long term, but I wouldn’t rule out taking a situational position. In the meantime, enjoy the moment, stay safe and healthy. Please look out for my travel blog trilogy. God bless.
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Disclaimers
All investments is highly speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We encourage our reader to invest very carefully. We also encourage reader to get personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on information that we publish. Much of our information is derived directly from information published by companies or submitted to governmental agencies on which we believe are reliable but are without our independent verification. Therefore, we cannot assure you that the information is accurate or complete. We do not in any way whatsoever warrant or guarantee the success of any action you take in reliance on our statements. All information provided are for education only. Buyer beware,do you own due diligence.
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